Will Android and iPhone replace the Mac and PC?

There comes a time in every industrial/technical revolution when innovation is superseded by consolidation: when the brains of the industry converge around certain preferred standards to drive down prices for consumers and improve efficiency, lowering costs for the suppliers. It seems this time is almost upon us with mobile broadband.

Mobile broadband will continue to be used by laptop and netbook users, as well as PC users to a certain degree. But as the technology gets smaller, and smarter, the mobile handset will pay an ever increasing roll in our everyday mobile broadband experience.

While it may be hard to conceive of a time when you won't need a bulky PC whirring away under your desk, as more services start to be cloud-based as broadband speeds increase, your machine at home will increasingly become a gateway to services and products, rather than a host of them.

You need to picture a time, and it's not far off, when your lounge television, your bedroom netbook and your mobile device - even your car - are all conduits to the same applications, which will be rendered in different ways depending on the screen size. Take gaming for example - the Nvidia stand at Mobile World congress was showing off Tegra 2 - a graphics system that is going into mass production now that can run the Unreal Engine 3 on a smartphone. Elsewhere, the Chilli Road stand had its real-time online mobile engine (ROME) in action, showing massively multi-player online games (MMOs) working on mobiles. 

Already, millions of people use their mobile for checking emails and simple web browsing. Developers such as Symbian (mainly via Nokia smartphones), RIM (with the BlackBerry) and Microsoft (with Windows Mobile) led the way, but as the technology has becoming increasingly popular, Apple (with the iPhone) and Google (with Android) have muscled their way into the market. Then there is Palm, BREW, Linux...

The problem, of course, is that developers don't want to build 10 different versions of each application they come up with. Instead, they will increasingly put their weight behind the app platforms that will guarantee them the best profit - meaning it's likely there will be some casualties along the way.

Apple has done what it does best: create a device that looks and acts the part, having enough charm to make people forget some pretty hefty foibles. It will probably never be the biggest player in the market, preferring to dictate on its own terms and accept a smaller market share in return for premium devices - with a premium price tag, as it has in the home computer and laptop fields.

It's easy to see Google's Android making a real impression too. Google has an amazing brand that people seem to warm too in an Apple-esque way, but it has differentiated itself by going open source. This means that the platform can be developed by everyone and anyone, and that all kinds of manufacturers will be able to make devices that run the Android operating system - much like the way PCs work now.

But if Google's Android is the new Windows, where does that leave Microsoft and Windows Mobile? The company launched Windows Phone 7 at Mobile World Congress, which certainly turned a lot of heads. Much like Windows 7 is a massive improvement on Vista, Windows Phone 7 is repairing some of the damage done by the decidedly dodgy Windows Mobile. However, the Android brand is new, cool and vibrant where Windows is, well, Windows.

But the good news for the likes of RIM and Microsoft is that this battle is being played out on a much bigger field, as millions of consumers are hungry for products - it simply doesn't compare easily to the old computer battles of the 80s. That said, the smart money still seems to be on three, or perhaps four, staying the course. It's hard to see the BlackBerry disappearing any time fast, especially in the business market, while Microsoft is so huge it's hard to see it failing. But that might mean trouble ahead for the likes of Nokia and Palm in terms of platforms.

Unfortunately, things will probably get more confusing being they start to level out - I've certainly over simplified things here, but there's just so much going on. But whatever happens, the Genie will be here to help you make the right decisions in terms of both devices and broadband suppliers.